Say what you want about bank failures and fiat/crypto on-off ramps, and I'll counter with rates. It's always about rates.
Bitcoin futures are still running pretty close to bond futures. Easy money makes a world of difference for speculative assets and crypto may have been thrown another line through all the recent turmoil.
I'm not about to speculate on what's up with the bank failure/bailout/attack/implosions. Who's driving the boat there is beyond me. What's interesting, though, is the chaos has put a rate cut on the bingo card, with at least one leading bank pivoting in that direction.
Has the "bad news" in crypto actually turned into a gift? CME's Fed Watch Tool has some money down on a rate cut at the 14 June 2023 meeting. That's certainly new this week and seemingly supportive of crypto prices.
The inverted yield curve made a run at correcting itself with 10Y-2Y running from -1.00 up to -0.367. That's a crazy rally but it's still inverted. It's still problematic. Tell me again how banks make money. Something about borrowing short and lending long? And it took until this week for bank stocks to crumble? Hmm...
Bitcoin fell through its 200-day moving average and below $20K just a few days ago and has rallied 25% up to $25K since. The air looks pretty clean up to about $28K but we could just as easily hit $18K next. I haven't a clue. What's encouraging is that the beat goes on and crypto's still here.
When in question, just remember, it's always about rates. If you can get a grip on where they're going, you're halfway home.