🛢 I get that we're at elevated prices, but it's hard to sweat inflation when #crudeoil is in a bear market. Oil took another beatdown today and is $5 below its 200-day moving average. Five bucks. That's significant. Covers the Double Quarter Pounder with Cheese Happy Meal at McDonald's or a gallon of gas with a large Coke. Take your pick. 🍔
⛽️ Gas is down too. Hard to miss that one. #RBOB is trading at $2.95 after getting up over $4.25. There's another $1.35. Let's say you're getting 15 gallons of gas 2x per week...there's $40. Now we're looking at Surf & Turf with Walt's Favorite Shrimp & 10 oz. NY Strip at Red Lobster 🍤. It adds up quickly. RBOB (aka gasoline futures) is also trading below its 200-day moving average. Bear market.
How about food at the grocery store? It hasn't trickled in yet, but wheat is in a bear market too. More than 50% off its high set back in March. Milk entered a bear market last week. Cheese is still up there but I live in Wisconsin and would be shot if I cheered for a bear market there. 🧀
My favorite inflationary check commodities? Lumber, copper, steel, aluminum, cotton...you name it. All in bear markets. What else is in a bear market? No, not bitcoin...we'll save that for another post...Treasuries. Still.
10-Yr note futures at CME Group have traded below their 200-day moving average since November of 2020. I'm looking at the continuous contract and there was a brief move above back in July, but rates like to trend this has been a humdinger of a lower trend. When does it end?
I'm feeling as though the winds have already changed. Looking at the Micro 10-Yr Yield futures, they're trading near 2.81 today and the chart looks ugly. It really looks like the next 40 bp move in these dime yield futures would land us closer to 2.40% rather 3.20%. Call me crazy (I've been called worse), but that's my call. Not a trade rec. mind you. Just sayin'.
Fire back at me and share your thoughts.