YoY Pending Home Sales were laughably bad and hit down 20% in June. 😱 That's 12 straight months of YoY drops in pending home sales. Oh, but don't worry, we're not in a recession. 🤦♂️
Dig deeper into it a bit more, and you'll see that the TRADING ECONOMICS forecast was down 9%. The reported number was more than 2x worse. Last month, the reported number of -13.6% was ~ 30% worse than the projected 10.6%.
When numbers keep coming in worse than projections, it's clear that the economy is faltering faster than analysts/smart money are willing to observe or acknowledge. I guess bear markets in #lumber, #copper, and #ironore we're enough to rattle prognosticators. Call me crazy, but this points to hard times ahead in my book.
CME Group's Fed Watch tool has been rolling down rate hike projections, and while we're still locked in for 75bp today, September is about evenly split with more flow going into a nudge higher rather than a lift.
Best of luck the today's FOMC meeting. With dwindling faith in their process and effectiveness, we really could get a surprise of some sort. Just a hunch, but remember that your hedge is your friend.
#trading #markets #economy #fomc #rates